As the political season continues, I wonder what will decide the Presidential election?
Not the identity of the Democratic candidate. That's not crucial.
Events, I think, will prevail. Or their absence.
If the US gets Osama bin Laden, President Bush will be reelected.
If the electorate gets shocking facts on what preceded 9/11 - I suspect we ain't heard nothin' yet - or harder evidence that the White House lied to get the country into Iraq, he might well lose.
There's a story in the New York Times this morning that ties into this thesis. Douglas Jehl writes that the Senate Intelligence Committee voted in closed session to "move toward a possible subpoena" for certain documents related to "prewar intelligence on Iraq."
Though his name appears only incidentally in the story, I read this report as a smoke signal from Sen. Pat Roberts, the Midwestern Republican who heads the committee, to his friends in the White House. Something like, "Help!"
(Politicians regularly use the press to send special messages.)
The 9/11 panel headed by Republican Thomas Kean also is having a hard time getting answers from the White House. I remember Kean as a straight-shooter when he was Governor of New Jersey.
Loud reports from either group could determine the election.
So could a major act of terrorism on US soil, which would probably help Bush. His campaign will stress fear, of course, portraying him as "strong."
The economy will be important, but no economic event, unless very big, will determine what happens. Sure, a stock market collapse would, but that is unlikely. Nor will small gains or losses on the job front qualify.
Oh, in the long run, the Bush approach to the economy risks pushing us into a Depression. But the election is in the short run. And, as we all know, in the long run we shall all be dead.